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  1. #1
    Prominent Member SaabKen's Avatar
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    Ohio - why such important state in election ?

    Why is it a "swing state" ? Aren't there many other states that have similar or more population that can pivot the primaries either way ? Please enlighten me
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  2. #2
    Jay
    Prominent Member Hirsch's Avatar
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    As an Ohio resident, I honestly can't answer that. I think it has something to do with the electoral college. It is a fact that no one has ever been elected president without winning Ohio in the general election.
    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Wulfers View Post
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  3. #3
    Regular Member #1SAAB12-17-11's Avatar
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    Ohio more than any other state contains an electorate that closely matches the total U.S. The more Democrat-leaning Northeast is balanced with a more Republican-leaning Southwest. It contains three major cities of over 1 million residents near-perfectly spaced as far from one another as possible (Cleveland, Columbus & Cincinnati), while filling most of the rest with numerous mid-sized cities, too (Toledo, Dayton, Lima, Akron, Canton, Youngstown, etc.) As you might expect, the state is filled with provincial interests. For example, Toledo residents always feel cheated by the larger "Three C's" cities and would rather be part of Michigan. Cincinnati is sarcastically referred to as "far northern Kentucky" and pretty much everyone hates Cleveland, armpit of the state.

    Given all that, the quintessential Ohio town is still small and rural, 5000 residents or less, including a significant number in the Appalachian foothills. But Ohio is highly-industrialized too, and in spite of years of "rust belt" decay, still employs plenty in blue-collar factory jobs. Columbus features one of the largest college campuses in the nation, closely matching the green and "progressive" political proclivities of that demographic and a healthy dollop of white-collar and government-based jobs, too.

    Ohio is not an exact replica of the total U.S. but most of the other 49 states don't even come close. Oh, and I lived there for 2-1/2 years, too.

    OHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIO
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  4. #4
    Prominent Member SaabKen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by #1SAAB12-17-11 View Post
    Ohio more than any other state contains an electorate that closely matches the total U.S. The more Democrat-leaning Northeast is balanced with a more Republican-leaning Southwest. It contains three major cities of over 1 million residents near-perfectly spaced as far from one another as possible (Cleveland, Columbus & Cincinnati), while filling most of the rest with numerous mid-sized cities, too (Toledo, Dayton, Lima, Akron, Canton, Youngstown, etc.) As you might expect, the state is filled with provincial interests. For example, Toledo residents always feel cheated by the larger "Three C's" cities and would rather be part of Michigan. Cincinnati is sarcastically referred to as "far northern Kentucky" and pretty much everyone hates Cleveland, armpit of the state.

    Given all that, the quintessential Ohio town is still small and rural, 5000 residents or less, including a significant number in the Appalachian foothills. But Ohio is highly-industrialized too, and in spite of years of "rust belt" decay, still employs plenty in blue-collar factory jobs. Columbus features one of the largest college campuses in the nation, closely matching the green and "progressive" political proclivities of that demographic and a healthy dollop of white-collar and government-based jobs, too.

    Ohio is not an exact replica of the total U.S. but most of the other 49 states don't even come close. Oh, and I lived there for 2-1/2 years, too.

    OHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIO
    Great reply, thanks !

    I find it quite amusing that Ohio would as the sole state that somehow mirrors the national demographics profile (and political spectrum). Does that mean there's a segment of uber-cool, back bacon-eating, Molson-guzzling, Shania-lovin' folks in Ohio too (given we're the 51st state) ?
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  5. #5
    Jay
    Prominent Member Hirsch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by #1SAAB12-17-11 View Post
    Ohio more than any other state contains an electorate that closely matches the total U.S. The more Democrat-leaning Northeast is balanced with a more Republican-leaning Southwest. It contains three major cities of over 1 million residents near-perfectly spaced as far from one another as possible (Cleveland, Columbus & Cincinnati), while filling most of the rest with numerous mid-sized cities, too (Toledo, Dayton, Lima, Akron, Canton, Youngstown, etc.) As you might expect, the state is filled with provincial interests. For example, Toledo residents always feel cheated by the larger "Three C's" cities and would rather be part of Michigan. Cincinnati is sarcastically referred to as "far northern Kentucky" and pretty much everyone hates Cleveland, armpit of the state.

    Given all that, the quintessential Ohio town is still small and rural, 5000 residents or less, including a significant number in the Appalachian foothills. But Ohio is highly-industrialized too, and in spite of years of "rust belt" decay, still employs plenty in blue-collar factory jobs. Columbus features one of the largest college campuses in the nation, closely matching the green and "progressive" political proclivities of that demographic and a healthy dollop of white-collar and government-based jobs, too.

    Ohio is not an exact replica of the total U.S. but most of the other 49 states don't even come close. Oh, and I lived there for 2-1/2 years, too.

    OHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIOHIO
    This is probably the best explanation I've heard. It's dead on.

    Cleveland and Cincinnati are drastically different. In Cincy we look at Cleveland as an extension of the northeast and their liberal east coast views. Cleveland thinks we're a bunch of gun-toting conservatives. Cleveland is by far the biggest of the 3 C's. Cincinnati is a cowtown by comparison. The population of Cincinnati city proper is about 300,000, but it's service area is easily 1.5 to 2 million people spread out over 3 states.

    When my dad was fighting to get the concealed carry law passed in Ohio, the biggest opposition came from Cleveland. Historically, Ohio is a republican state, but we've swung the other way.
    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Wulfers View Post
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  6. #6
    Regular Member #1SAAB12-17-11's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaabKen View Post
    ...Does that mean there's a segment of uber-cool, back bacon-eating, Molson-guzzling, Shania-lovin' folks in Ohio too (given we're the 51st state) ?
    Hey, who doesn't love Shania?

    Can't say I ever met a Canadian transplant in Ohio, but they can't vote in the U.S. so Ohio's bellwhether status is safe until British Columbia becomes #51, in which case Ohio wouldn't be nearly green enough to match the new national demographics. OTOH, if B.C. joined with all the prairie provinces (leaving Ontario to lord over all the Francophones and the rocky and worthless Maritimes), you Canucks would probably cancel each other out and leave Ohio's status as closest replica of the North American electorate intact.
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  7. #7
    Regular Member #1SAAB12-17-11's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hirsch View Post
    This is probably the best explanation I've heard. It's dead on. ...
    Thank you! I laughed at your characterization of Cleveland. It truly is the most unloved corner of America, where the tattered style of the East and the fading practicality of the Midwest come together and wear the "Full Cleveland" from Easter through Labor Day. A real Easterner can pick them out a mile away, and the average Midwesterner finds them far too boorish -- thus why most Ohioans don't even consider Clevelanders part of their state. It's really not a fair characterization; Youngstown and Warren are far worse. No matter what anyone ever had to say about anyone else in Ohio, they could all agree that Cleveland sucks.


    I never saw much about Ohio's culture that was too different than Illinois' where I grew up, with one big exception: Friday Night High School Football. The craziness over these games is probably only exceeded in Texas. The local TV stations take their traffic copters into the air to "visit" games and tape highlights. Big rivalry games will draw well over 10,000 fans. I ran into a bunch of traffic signs for "Football Stadium" entering Massillon for the first time thinking it was a college town; Nope, it was Massillon H.S. where the booster club gives out baby-sized footballs to the newborn sons (and pom poms to the girls) at the local hospital.

    Which brings me to the real reason Ohio State and Michigan hate each other. Bo Schembechler was a coach at Bowling Green State University successfully recruiting talent from surrounding northwest Ohio high schools, but when he left to take the Michigan head coaching job, he took all his recruiting contacts with him. All the Ohio State grads back in Columbus consider every talented teenager the state produces to be their birthright to play for The Ohio State University and this act of treason was a cardinal sin.

    The Buckeyes were 10-0 entering the 1996 game with Michigan. I had a business appointment the following Monday morning in Columbus but the guy I was working with was so depressed he could barely talk. "I would rather they went 1-10 but beat Michigan." Now that's HATE.
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  8. #8
    Jay
    Prominent Member Hirsch's Avatar
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    Cleveland is called the mistake on the lake. Youngstown and Akron still haven't shed their mob past. When my cousins from Cleveland were dealing weed, they were buying it in Youngstown. Cincinnati has it's sleazy side. Our former Mayor once paid a prostitute with a check. Then stopped payment on it. You know him as Trash TV talk show host Jerry Springer. I even have a connection to Cincinnatis former shady past. My uncles grandfather was a lawyer to infamous political figure "Boss Cox". Cincinnati is home to the 4th richest zip code in the state. Indian Hill 45243.

    Friday night high school football rules in all of Ohio. Our local Saturday morning news shows dedicate 15-20 minutes to high school football highlights. Our Fox outlet, locally WXIX 19, has a 15 minute show on Fridays nights called The Final Quarter.

    Ken, everyone likes Shania. As far as Canadians go, I see a Yukon Denali around here with the license plate "3 NEWFS" and that have a Canadian flag sticker on the back window. I assume they're from Newfoundland. But Cincinnati is a very international city, Proctor and Gamble has their world HQ here, Chiquta brands did , but recently announced plans to move. General Electric Jet Engines is here as well. Toyota NA is located in Northern KY, which we kind of claim as part of Ohio, because NKY is nothing like the rest of KKKY. Hell, the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky airport is in Northern KY! Hill-Rom Industries, the people that make hospitals beds is in south eastern Indiana as is Batesville Casket.
    Last edited by Hirsch; 10 March 2012 at 04:47.
    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Wulfers View Post
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  9. #9
    Prominent Member SaabKen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by #1SAAB12-17-11 View Post
    Can't say I ever met a Canadian transplant in Ohio, but they can't vote in the U.S. so Ohio's bellwhether status is safe until British Columbia becomes #51, in which case Ohio wouldn't be nearly green enough to match the new national demographics. OTOH, if B.C. joined with all the prairie provinces (leaving Ontario to lord over all the Francophones and the rocky and worthless Maritimes), you Canucks would probably cancel each other out and leave Ohio's status as closest replica of the North American electorate intact.
    LOL

    Quote Originally Posted by Hirsch View Post
    ........ I see a Yukon Denali around here with the license plate "3 NEWFS" and that have a Canadian flag sticker on the back window. I assume they're from Newfoundland.
    Oh good, three less of 'em for us to worry about
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  10. #10
    Regular Member #1SAAB12-17-11's Avatar
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    There really aren't that many states that are in play even in close presidential elections. Each party has dialed in their core voting constituencies -- constantly spotlighting the latest carefully selected issue to "stir the base" -- and virtually every state has a larger portion of one party's core voting constituents than the other. Thus in each of these states the weaker party has a seemingly impossible uphill climb to gain 50% + 1 of the vote to have a chance at grabbing the state's entire electoral vote total.

    The result is neither party much bothers campaigning in states they know they have little chance of winning, turning the remaining "battleground" states -- like Ohio -- into titanic clashes as both sides feel they can win if only they marshal enough resources to "get out the vote". Most of these battleground states fall in the Midwest because they contain a relatively balanced number of constituents each party is trying to stir up.

    Though not as strong as Ohio, Missouri is another strong bellwether and like Ohio it contains many of the same political dynamics born of provincial interests. Illinois used to be a strong bellwether but once the suburbs started voting "D" the political balance (and the economic vitality) of the state quickly vanished. Michigan is a similar story. That leaves just Ohio as best barometer of what the rest of America is likely to decide inside the voting booth.
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